Mario Balotelli to LFC and life ahead in UEFA Champions League

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/signing-mario-balotelli-could-liverpool-4085945

I would like to agree with Jim, here. But let's first track back and look at the overall scenario. Balotelli is a bankable name when it comes to business. However, if the club is looking to step up to the next level, the key objective of BR will be - keep appearing in CL consecutively for the next 3-4 seasons. Then, the scenarios we are looking at are:

SCENARIO #1
75% lesser tally of goals can do but we cannot afford to allow more than 60% of the goals conceded last season.
RATIONALE: I am taking a comparative look at AM's 2013-14 season. The similarities abound. They were in the hunt and it was their stand-out season. Our scoring rate was 2.26 while conceding at 1.40 per game. They were much tighter. They scored at the rate of 1.62 per game but conceded less than a goal every game, 0.82 to be exact. Comparatively, across the season RM scored at a rate much higher - a phenomenal 2.67 per game, they also conceded 0.78. But that's largely due to their impeccable CL run. In league, however, they conceded 1 goal per game, which meant, even when they had the a scoring rate of 2.74 (higher than their season average) and goal difference almost 30% better than AM, they conceded the league and had to settle for 3rd place.
Getting back to EPL, checkout MC's comparable scoring rate of 2.68 per game (compare with RM) but appreciably thrifty 0.97 rate of conceding per game (compare with AM).

SCENARIO #2
Suarez accounted for 32% of the total goals scored last season. As reasoned in previous scenario, we need 75% of what we scored last season in EPL and 25% of it in CL, so that we can play CL 2015-16.
RATIONALE: This is again comparable to AM's scenario. They had a 99 goal season (excluding 5 own goals). So, if we score say 75-80 odd next season and an additional 20-25 in rest of the tournaments, we have a decent chance, considering the above scenario is met. Are we in a position to accomplish that? Let's see.
If i write off 31 goals and 12 assists of Suarez, we have 54 goals. With Lallana (G-9+A-5), Balotelli (G-13+A-6), Lambert (G-13+A-10) and a much improved Sterling (G-9+A-5) we have a possible 44 goal an 26 assist cover. This quite fits the Scenario #1.
Also, consider this - Serie A as a league has top 6 teams conceding only 21% of total goals scored in the league to around 23% in EPL, 24% in La Liga and 25% in Bundesliga. Similarly, the top 6 in Serie A accounted for 40% of total goals scored whereas it was 43% in EPL-Bundesliga and 47% in La Liga. Guess how many goals JUV conceded per match in the entire season? 0.65 per match! Better than anybody else across the 4 leagues!
Essentially, top teams of Serie A find it tougher to score compared to EPL or La Liga. So, it can be expected that a striker coming out of the Serie A scenario can get more opportunities to score. It will not be unfair to expect Balotelli's scoring form to be much better.

SCENARIO #3
So, we will need a strike force which individually is comparable to any team, but cumulatively accounts for 60-65% of all goals scored in the season. Also, we need to know how the defence can contribute 10-15% of the tally while ensuring the goal cover needed. How do we compare?
RATIONALE: Learn from JUV. 5 of their defenders were on scoreboard last season - more than 4 each for AM, LIV, MC and RM. They gave them 12 goals - more than that from the defenses of AM, LIV and RM. Add to that their fresh additional/substitute legs for a rock solid defence. Did they fare well? They qualified for the 7th straight CL season, didn't they?
Now, consider the squad. If we consider how many scorers shared the team's season goal tally, this is how it looks - MC-14, AM-17, JUV-17 and BAY-16. Guess what LIV's looked like - 13! Post season this number is now down to 7. Suarez, Agger, Moses and Aspas (believe it or not he scored 1 in FA cup!) are gone. Considering the new entrants like Mario, Lallana, Lambert, Lovren, Markovic and Moreno fire - we still have only 12 potential goal scorers. We need a defensive dynamo more than anything else!
Finally, about the forward line. MC, AM and JUV employed 4, 5 & 6 FWs respectively to carry the burden of 55-60% of the tally. Guess how many LIV had? 2 (I am rightfully ignoring Aspas' single goal season). You might say, 'But BAY had 2 too - Mandzukic and Pizzaro'. My answer is, well, none of the teams mentioned here had a MF 9 of whose members scored across the season. AM went nearest and they had a scorer list of 8 MFs.

SCENARIO #4
How does Balotelli's career track look like vis-a-vis the best in business as an out-and-out SK and on that basis, what can we expect?
RATIONALE: To fully predict Mario Balotelli's influence in LIV's quest to survive in top 4 - which will eventually aid them in acquiring more 'marquee' signings in 2-3 subsequent seasons - we should take a look at some most influential SK's in modern era and how they have performed with age. Why age? Because performance level has a well known correlation with age of any sportsman, especially in the world of contact sports. Then, what better than comparing with the best? They are Messi (27yrs), Ronaldo (29yrs), Suarez (27yrs) & Aguero (26yrs). Mario is 24.
Also, as a SK there is a primary objective of scoring goals and two secondary objectives a. creating actual goals (not opportunities) and b. ability to stay fit or eligible to play for the team maximum amount of time.
Here we take a look at few figures in graphical format for an easier overview.
i) The graph below shows the appearances of these five players across their age.

It is interesting to notice the almost optimized appearance level of Suarez. Trust me this is because of not being able to play in a team in CL. He deserves to be in one and I am not going to cry over spilt milk. Similar trend is seen for Mario as well. But that's more to do with his on field transgressions and attitude which has been vilified by many coaches and pundits. Having said that, remember, he is a good 2-3 years younger to Messi, Suarez and Aguero. In essence he has these years to mature. So, when his agent MIno Raiola advises Mario, "Make it or break it", he knows that in its truest sense.

ii) The following graph shows the number of goals and assists that these maestros have gifted their respective team with age.

Let's put aside Suarez's unbelievable season at Ajax. What's interesting to note here is that Aguero - a more gentle character, in fact has a marginally better future than the former. Balotelli's trend is also comparable but at a lower scale which is attributable to the trials and tribulations while playing for MANCs. But is this scale comparable to EPL? In comparison to previous graph, the following one takes into account the rate at which these players impacted the team outings.

Now the picture clears up a bit more. Mario's ability to score or create goals per match is at par and comparable to likes of Ronaldo, Suarez and Aguero, over the last two seasons. This means an issue of consistency - a problem area for BR to sort out. This is not new to him and nothing different to Suarez's scenario couple of seasons back (which he did manage to sort out to an appreciable extent).

iii) Finally, if we look at the sheer scoring ability as a SK as in the following chart, we find Messi and Ronaldo miles ahead. So, we will restrict our comparison of Mario to Suarez and Aguero.

Here, too, we find Aguero's striking trend much better than that of Suarez. Really? Not exactly. Let's look at the rate of their scoring per match. Hola! Suarez rises above rest to join the top 2. But this isn't a true picture either. We haven't seen him play as many matches in a season as Aguero. To fathom, refer back to the first chart of appearances. So, at peak fitness there's trouble for any European big clubs playing against MANCs with a relentless SK running behind their lines.

What about Mario? Not so much really. He's a SK who might improve but greatness is something better left for Messi's and Ronaldo's to be born with.

To sum up, we Scousers, still need to hunt for another 15-20 goals per season striker and a defensive dynamo who can shadow Skrtel.